Christian Wilkins
DT, Clemson · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #13 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.04 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 28% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 86 of ~100 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2024 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 86 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 35 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 35.0 |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 2 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 215 tackles, 22.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.04 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.38" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#3 DT) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 10 | Devin Bush Jr. | redraft #30 |
| 11 | Jonah Williams | redraft #39 |
| 12 | Rashan Gary | redraft #38 |
| 14 | Chris Lindstrom | redraft #15 |
| 15 | Dwayne Haskins | redraft #163 |
| 16 | Brian Burns | redraft #12 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.