Brandon Burton
DB, Southern Utah · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #139 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~40%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #80 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #139: teams let him slide 59 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Southern Utah: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 190 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 190 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 8.399" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #80 overall (#11 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 136 | Anthony Sherman | redraft #142 |
| 137 | Buster Skrine | redraft #44 |
| 138 | Marcus Cannon | redraft #33 |
| 140 | Gabe Miller | redraft #216 |
| 141 | D.J. Williams | redraft #157 |
| 142 | Karl Klug | redraft #89 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.