Anthony Sherman
RB, Connecticut · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #136 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 153 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2020 (~96%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #174 (#2 at his position); he went #136, 38 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Connecticut: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 7% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 153 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 28 att, 73 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 66 rec, 552 yds, 4 TD |
| Defense | 58 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74 s |
| Bench press | 32 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.23 s |
| Shuttle | 4.41 s |
| Arm / hand | 30" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #174 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 133 | Johnny White | redraft #209 |
| 134 | Robert Sands | redraft #230 |
| 135 | Ricky Stanzi | redraft #231 |
| 137 | Buster Skrine | redraft #44 |
| 138 | Marcus Cannon | redraft #33 |
| 139 | Brandon Burton | redraft #193 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.