Arik Armstead
DT, Oregon · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #17 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 155 of ~181 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~86%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #12 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 292 lbs: faster than 25% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 155 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 45 |
| Defense | 216 tackles, 42 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 292 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.57 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #12 overall (#3 DT) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 14 | DeVante Parker | redraft #42 |
| 15 | Melvin Gordon | redraft #22 |
| 16 | Kevin Johnson | redraft #110 |
| 18 | Marcus Peters | redraft #8 |
| 19 | Cameron Erving | redraft #64 |
| 20 | Nelson Agholor | redraft #44 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.