Nelson Agholor
WR, USC · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #20 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#20).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 69% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 149 of ~164 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2024 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 149 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| Passing | 1/1, 15 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 14 att, 71 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 389 rec, 4,858 yds, 37 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#5 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 17 | Arik Armstead | redraft #26 |
| 18 | Marcus Peters | redraft #8 |
| 19 | Cameron Erving | redraft #64 |
| 21 | Cedric Ogbuehi | redraft #88 |
| 22 | Bud Dupree | redraft #24 |
| 23 | Shane Ray | redraft #107 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.