Melvin Gordon
RB, Wisconsin · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #15 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 53% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 112 of ~147 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2023 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 112 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 51 |
| Rushing | 1593 att, 6,543 yds, 56 TD |
| Receiving | 312 rec, 2,513 yds, 14 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 7.04 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 12 | Danny Shelton | redraft #52 |
| 13 | Andrus Peat | redraft #20 |
| 14 | DeVante Parker | redraft #42 |
| 16 | Kevin Johnson | redraft #110 |
| 17 | Arik Armstead | redraft #26 |
| 18 | Marcus Peters | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.