Antonio Smith
DE, Oklahoma St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #135 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 186 of ~208 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2016 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #115 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#135). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.03 40-yard dash at 274 lbs: faster than 30% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 186 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 56 |
| Defense | 247 tackles, 47.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 274 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.03 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| Shuttle | 4.75 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #115 overall (#13 DE) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 132 | Adrian Jones | redraft #103 |
| 133 | Dave Ball | redraft #94 |
| 134 | Johnnie Morant | redraft #200 |
| 136 | Gibril Wilson | redraft #56 |
| 137 | Josh Scobee | redraft #69 |
| 138 | Jacob Bell | redraft #57 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.