Adrian Jones
T, Kansas · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #132 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #89 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #132: teams let him slide 43 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.97 40-yard dash at 296 lbs: faster than 92% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 55 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~69%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 296 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.97 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.58 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #89 overall (#8 T) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 129 | J.R. Reed | redraft #154 |
| 130 | Brandon Chillar | redraft #81 |
| 131 | Trey Darilek | redraft #178 |
| 133 | Dave Ball | redraft #94 |
| 134 | Johnnie Morant | redraft #200 |
| 135 | Antonio Smith | redraft #20 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.