Brandon Chillar
LB, UCLA · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #130 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 97 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2010 (~87%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #123 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#130). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 253 lbs: faster than 30% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 97 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Defense | 299 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 253 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #123 overall (#8 LB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 127 | Richard Seigler | redraft #204 |
| 128 | Cedric Cobbs | redraft #210 |
| 129 | J.R. Reed | redraft #154 |
| 131 | Trey Darilek | redraft #178 |
| 132 | Adrian Jones | redraft #103 |
| 133 | Dave Ball | redraft #94 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.