Jacob Bell
G, Miami (OH) · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #138 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 109 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2011 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #129 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#138). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (OH): not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.22 40-yard dash at 302 lbs: faster than 48% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 109 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 32 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -15 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 302 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.22 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #129 overall (#6 G) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 135 | Antonio Smith | redraft #20 |
| 136 | Gibril Wilson | redraft #56 |
| 137 | Josh Scobee | redraft #69 |
| 139 | Rodney Leisle | redraft #171 |
| 140 | Alex Lewis | redraft #126 |
| 141 | Jake Scott | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.