Akeem Spence
DT, Illinois · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #100 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #87 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#100). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Illinois: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.15 40-yard dash at 307 lbs: faster than 13% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 117 of ~162 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2022 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 117 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Defense | 127 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 307 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.15 s |
| Bench press | 37 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.82 s |
| Shuttle | 4.72 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #87 overall (#11 DT) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 97 | Zaviar Gooden | redraft #168 |
| 98 | Matt Barkley | redraft #159 |
| 99 | Nico Johnson | redraft #177 |
| 101 | Ace Sanders | redraft #173 |
| 102 | Josh Boyce | redraft #199 |
| 103 | Alex Okafor | redraft #53 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.