Matt Barkley
QB, USC · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #98 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~179 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2023 (~11%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #98: teams let him slide 55 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.91 40-yard dash at 227 lbs: faster than 23% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Passing | 212/363, 2,699 yds, 11 TD, 22 INT |
| Rushing | 26 att, -15 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 2 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 227 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.91 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.5" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 95 | Sam Montgomery | redraft #233 |
| 96 | Knile Davis | redraft #115 |
| 97 | Zaviar Gooden | redraft #168 |
| 99 | Nico Johnson | redraft #177 |
| 100 | Akeem Spence | redraft #58 |
| 101 | Ace Sanders | redraft #173 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.