Josh Boyce
WR, TCU · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #102 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 10 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2014 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #130 (#15 at his position), close to where he went (#102).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 206 lbs: faster than 83% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 10 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 9 rec, 121 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 206 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 131" |
| 3-cone | 6.68 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.2" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #130 overall (#15 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 99 | Nico Johnson | redraft #177 |
| 100 | Akeem Spence | redraft #58 |
| 101 | Ace Sanders | redraft #173 |
| 103 | Alex Okafor | redraft #53 |
| 104 | Jelani Jenkins | redraft #92 |
| 105 | Duke Williams | redraft #131 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.