Aaron Dobson
WR, Marshall · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #59 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 24 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2015 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #62 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#59).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Marshall: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 85% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 24 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Receiving | 53 rec, 698 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #62 overall (#9 WR) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 56 | Arthur Brown | redraft #175 |
| 57 | D.J. Swearinger | redraft #55 |
| 58 | Montee Ball | redraft #142 |
| 60 | Robert Alford | redraft #59 |
| 61 | Eddie Lacy | redraft #41 |
| 62 | Christine Michael | redraft #122 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.