Ryan Reid
PF, Florida State · 2010 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #57 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #114 (#29 at his position); he went #57, 57 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.7 years old on draft night (born 1986-10-30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Florida State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 games over 1 NBA season (~6% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 5 |
| Minutes / game | 3.4 |
| Points / game | 1.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.4 |
| Assists / game | 0.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.1 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.0 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 235 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.7 |
| Born | 1986-10-30 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #114 overall (#29 PF) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 54 | Willie Warren | redraft #40 |
| 55 | Jeremy Evans | redraft #23 |
| 56 | Hamady N'Diaye | redraft #48 |
| 58 | Derrick Caracter | redraft #38 |
| 59 | Stanley Robinson | redraft #59 |
| 60 | Dwayne Collins | redraft #60 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.