Roger Mason
SG, Virginia · 2002 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #31 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 overall (#1107 at his position), but he lasted until pick #31: teams let him slide 25 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.8 years old on draft night (born 1980-09-10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Virginia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 518 games over 10 NBA seasons (~63% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 518 |
| Minutes / game | 17.7 |
| Points / game | 6.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.7 |
| Assists / game | 1.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 13.0 |
| VORP | 1.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.4 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 201 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.8 |
| Born | Silver Springs, Md. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#1107 SG) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 28 | Dan Dickau | redraft #22 |
| 30 | Steve Logan | redraft #49 |
| 32 | Robert Archibald | redraft #45 |
| 33 | Vincent Yarbrough | redraft #34 |
| 34 | Dan Gadzuric | redraft #18 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.