Dan Dickau
PG, Gonzaga · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #28 (SAC)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 overall (#284 at his position), but he lasted until pick #28: teams let him slide 24 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.8 years old on draft night (born 1978-09-16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Gonzaga.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 300 games over 6 NBA seasons (~61% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 300 |
| Minutes / game | 15.4 |
| Points / game | 5.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.4 |
| Assists / game | 2.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 5.9 |
| VORP | 0.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 170 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.8 |
| Born | Vancouver, WA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#284 PG) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 25 | Frank Williams | redraft #38 |
| 26 | John Salmons | redraft #11 |
| 27 | Chris Jefferies | redraft #42 |
| 30 | Steve Logan | redraft #49 |
| 31 | Roger Mason | redraft #16 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.