Paul Zipser
SF · 2016 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #48 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#48).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.4 years old on draft night (born 1994-02-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Heidelberg, Germany.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 98 games over 2 NBA seasons (~60% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 98 |
| Minutes / game | 17.0 |
| Points / game | 4.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.6 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.0 |
| VORP | -1.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.2 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 210 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.4 |
| Born | Heidelberg, Germany |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#13 SF) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 45 | Demetrius Jackson | redraft #37 |
| 46 | A.J. Hammons | redraft #44 |
| 47 | Jake Layman | redraft #29 |
| 49 | Michael Gbinije | redraft #49 |
| 50 | Georges Niang | redraft #15 |
| 51 | Ben Bentil | redraft #51 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.