Nemanja Bjelica
SF · 2010 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #35 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #67 (#15 at his position); he went #35, 32 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.1 years old on draft night (born 1988-05-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Belgrade, Serbia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 449 games over 7 NBA seasons (~78% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 7 |
| Games | 449 |
| Minutes / game | 20.4 |
| Points / game | 7.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.6 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.0 |
| VORP | 5.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.3 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 210 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.1 |
| Born | Belgrade, Serbia |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #67 overall (#15 SF) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 32 | Dexter Pittman | redraft #36 |
| 33 | Hassan Whiteside | redraft #7 |
| 34 | Armon Johnson | redraft #42 |
| 36 | Terrico White | redraft #52 |
| 37 | Darington Hobson | redraft #45 |
| 38 | Andy Rautins | redraft #46 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.