Nate Wolters
PG, South Dakota State · 2013 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #38 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 84 games over 3 NBA seasons (~34% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#38).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.1 years old on draft night (born 1991-05-15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at South Dakota State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 3.75" at 6' 5" tall (-1.3 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 84 |
| Minutes / game | 18.8 |
| Points / game | 5.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.2 |
| Assists / game | 2.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.9 |
| VORP | -0.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.6 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 196 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 3.75" |
| Age on draft night | 22.1 |
| Born | St. Cloud, MN |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#8 PG) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 35 | Glen Rice Jr. | redraft #46 |
| 36 | Ray McCallum | redraft #35 |
| 37 | Tony Mitchell | redraft #40 |
| 39 | Jeff Withey | redraft #27 |
| 40 | Grant Jerrett | redraft #43 |
| 41 | Jamaal Franklin | redraft #49 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.