Marcus Thornton
SG, LSU · 2009 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #43 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #27 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #43: teams let him slide 16 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.1 years old on draft night (born 1987-06-05).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at LSU.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 483 games over 8 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 483 |
| Minutes / game | 23.4 |
| Points / game | 11.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.8 |
| Assists / game | 1.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.0 |
| VORP | 6.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.2 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 194 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.1 |
| Born | Baton Rouge, LA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #27 overall (#6 SG) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 40 | Derrick Brown | redraft #33 |
| 41 | Jodie Meeks | redraft #18 |
| 42 | Patrick Beverley | redraft #12 |
| 44 | Chase Budinger | redraft #26 |
| 45 | Nick Calathes | redraft #37 |
| 46 | Danny Green | redraft #6 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.