Lorenzo Brown
PG, NC State · 2013 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #52 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#52).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.8 years old on draft night (born 1990-08-26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at NC State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 7" at 6' 5" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 103 games over 5 NBA seasons (~25% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 5 |
| Games | 103 |
| Minutes / game | 11.5 |
| Points / game | 2.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.5 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.2 |
| VORP | -0.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.5 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 189 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 7" |
| Age on draft night | 22.8 |
| Born | Roswell, GA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#10 PG) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 49 | Erik Murphy | redraft #42 |
| 50 | James Ennis III | redraft #19 |
| 51 | Romero Osby | redraft #54 |
| 53 | Colton Iverson | redraft #55 |
| 54 | Arsalan Kazemi | redraft #56 |
| 55 | Joffrey Lauvergne | redraft #30 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.