Julius Randle
PF, Kentucky · 2014 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #7 (LAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #8 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.6 years old on draft night (born 1994-11-29).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kentucky.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 6' 9" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 791 games over 13 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 13 |
| Games | 791 |
| Minutes / game | 32.1 |
| Points / game | 19.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 8.9 |
| Assists / game | 3.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 57.3 |
| VORP | 19.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.0 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 234 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 19.6 |
| Born | Dallas, TX |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #8 overall (#3 PF) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 4 | Aaron Gordon | redraft #5 |
| 5 | Danté Exum | redraft #27 |
| 6 | Marcus Smart | redraft #12 |
| 8 | Nik Stauskas | redraft #28 |
| 9 | Noah Vonleh | redraft #25 |
| 10 | Elfrid Payton | redraft #22 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.