Aaron Gordon
PF, Arizona · 2014 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #4 (ORL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.8 years old on draft night (born 1995-09-16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Arizona.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 6' 9" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 758 games over 13 NBA seasons (~71% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 13 |
| Games | 758 |
| Minutes / game | 29.2 |
| Points / game | 13.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.2 |
| Assists / game | 2.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 50.4 |
| VORP | 13.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.4 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 220 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 18.8 |
| Born | San Jose, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#2 PF) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 1 | Andrew Wiggins | redraft #13 |
| 2 | Jabari Parker | redraft #23 |
| 3 | Joel Embiid | redraft #2 |
| 5 | Danté Exum | redraft #27 |
| 6 | Marcus Smart | redraft #12 |
| 7 | Julius Randle | redraft #4 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.