Denzel Valentine
SF, Michigan State · 2016 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #14 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.5 years old on draft night (born 1993-12-16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Michigan State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 6" tall (+5.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 256 games over 5 NBA seasons (~62% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 5 |
| Games | 256 |
| Minutes / game | 18.8 |
| Points / game | 7.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.3 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.5 |
| VORP | 0.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.9 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 210 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 22.5 |
| Born | Lansing, MI |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#4 SF) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 11 | Domantas Sabonis | redraft #1 |
| 12 | Taurean Prince | redraft #16 |
| 13 | Georgios Papagiannis | redraft #36 |
| 15 | Juancho Hernangómez | redraft #18 |
| 16 | Guerschon Yabusele | redraft #20 |
| 17 | Wade Baldwin | redraft #53 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.