DeMar DeRozan
SG, USC · 2009 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #9 (TOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 1266 games over 18 NBA seasons (~86% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #10 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#9). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.9 years old on draft night (born 1989-08-07).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at USC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 18 |
| Games | 1266 |
| Minutes / game | 34.5 |
| Points / game | 21.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.3 |
| Assists / game | 4.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 114.1 |
| VORP | 30.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.8 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 211 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.9 |
| Born | Compton, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #10 overall (#2 SG) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 6 | Jonny Flynn | redraft #49 |
| 7 | Stephen Curry | redraft #2 |
| 8 | Jordan Hill | redraft #29 |
| 10 | Brandon Jennings | redraft #14 |
| 11 | Terrence Williams | redraft #47 |
| 12 | Gerald Henderson | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.