Brandon Jennings
PG · 2009 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (MIL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.8 years old on draft night (born 1989-09-23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
No college; born in Los Angeles, CA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 55.6% of the time (9 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 555 games over 9 NBA seasons (~75% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 555 |
| Minutes / game | 30.3 |
| Points / game | 14.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.0 |
| Assists / game | 5.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 29.9 |
| VORP | 11.8 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.8 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft No college (HS / G League / other) | 55.6% n=9 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 165 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.8 |
| Born | Los Angeles, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#2 PG) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 7 | Stephen Curry | redraft #2 |
| 8 | Jordan Hill | redraft #29 |
| 9 | DeMar DeRozan | redraft #3 |
| 11 | Terrence Williams | redraft #47 |
| 12 | Gerald Henderson | redraft #27 |
| 13 | Tyler Hansbrough | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.