Austin Rivers
SG, Duke · 2012 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (NOH)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.9 years old on draft night (born 1992-08-01).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 7" at 6' 5" tall (+2.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 707 games over 11 NBA seasons (~78% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 707 |
| Minutes / game | 23.8 |
| Points / game | 8.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.0 |
| Assists / game | 2.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 15.2 |
| VORP | -4.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.1 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 203 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 7" |
| Age on draft night | 19.9 |
| Born | Winter Park, FL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#5 SG) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 7 | Harrison Barnes | redraft #7 |
| 8 | Terrence Ross | redraft #12 |
| 9 | Andre Drummond | redraft #4 |
| 11 | Meyers Leonard | redraft #21 |
| 12 | Jeremy Lamb | redraft #9 |
| 13 | Kendall Marshall | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.