2026 NBA Draft Steals So Far: Why Teams Passed on Lendeborg, Brazile and Meleek Thomas
Yaxel Lendeborg went 11th and sits 2nd. Trevon Brazile went 35th and sits 13th. Here's what the pre-draft data says about why the 2026 class's early steals slipped.
About six games into the season, the live 2026 NBA redraft already has a list of names front offices might want back. Through the games of Oct. 31, actual production drives about 80% of each rookie's score, and six players now sit at least five spots above where they were picked. Four of them came off the board in the second round.
The harder question is why they slipped. Every RookieRanks player page carries a pre-draft profile: ESPN's pre-draft rank, age at draft, and how players with those traits have done against their slot across the 2000-2021 NBA classes. So let's use it.
The early steals board
| Player | Pick | Redraft now | Move | ESPN pre-draft rank | Season line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Brazile | 35 | 13 | +22 | 41 | 8.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 62.9 TS% |
| Emanuel Sharp | 45 | 30 | +15 | 38 | 3.8 pts, 17.8 min, 41.2 TS% |
| Meleek Thomas | 34 | 20 | +14 | 29 | 13.0 pts, 20.7 min, 65.3 TS% |
| Bryce Hopkins | 49 | 37 | +12 | 46 | 3.8 pts, 16.5 min, 63.1 TS% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 | 19.8 pts, 7.8 reb, 59.9 TS% |
| Allen Graves | 19 | 14 | +5 | 17 | 5.6 pts, 1.0 blk, 63.8 TS% |
One honest caveat: these are tiny samples of three to six games, and every player page still says "Too early for a verdict." The board is built to move slowly on small samples, which is why a +22 this early is worth noticing.
Yaxel Lendeborg: the age discount
Yaxel Lendeborg is the cleanest case of the league pricing in age. He was 23.7 on draft night, and ESPN had him 12th overall and 5th among forwards. Golden State took him 11th, right about where the consensus had him.
So he wasn't a secret. He was discounted. Players drafted at 23 or older beat their draft slot only 48.6% of the time in our 2000-2021 sample (n=138), a hair below the 50% you'd expect from a typical pick. Our simple pre-draft model gives him a flat 50% chance of beating his slot. Teams leaned toward younger upside, which is the usual bet.
Six games in, he's making that bet look shaky. Lendeborg is averaging 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 32.0 minutes on 59.9% true shooting. That's third among rookies in scoring and second in rebounding, behind only Cameron Boozer, who took back No. 1 on the board after a 17.3-point, 10.5-rebound, 5.7-assist start.
Trevon Brazile: the second-round big who won't sit
If Lendeborg was discounted, Trevon Brazile was flat-out passed on. ESPN ranked him 41st overall and 19th among forwards. He went 35th, so the league actually took him a bit earlier than the consensus did. Like Lendeborg, he arrived old for a rookie at 23.5, in the same 23-or-older bucket that historically trails a typical pick.
Then the games started. Brazile is giving his team 8.8 points and 6.6 rebounds in 22.8 minutes on 62.9% true shooting, and he's shooting 51.6% from the floor with six made threes in 17 tries. His 6.6 rebounds rank fifth in the class, and his +22 move is the biggest jump on the entire board. He now sits 13th, the slot that belonged to Miami on draft night.
Meleek Thomas: the young one who slid
Meleek Thomas breaks the pattern. He was 19.9 at the draft, ESPN ranked him 29th overall and 14th among guards, and he still lasted until pick 34. Under-20 players have beaten their slot 51.7% of the time historically (n=300), and our model gives him a 54% chance, one of the better leans in the class.
He was also the biggest mover since the last update, up seven spots overnight to 20th. In three games he's averaging 13.0 points in 20.7 minutes on 65.3% true shooting, and he's 7-of-12 from three with a +23 plus-minus. Three games is three games. But a 19-year-old guard scoring like that off the bench is the kind of start that makes the 33 picks ahead of him look questionable.
The deep cuts: Sharp, Hopkins and Graves
Emanuel Sharp is the riser that comes with an asterisk. He went 45th, seven spots after his ESPN rank of 38, and he's climbed to 30th mostly on minutes: 17.8 a night across six games. The efficiency hasn't come yet. He's at 3.8 points on 41.2% true shooting and 5-of-18 from three.
Bryce Hopkins, the 49th pick, is up 12 to 37th with two starts in four games and 63.1% true shooting. Allen Graves is the first-rounder of the group. Taken 19th, two spots below his ESPN rank of 17, he's up to 14th with 5.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 14.4 minutes. At 19.9, he also carries the best pre-draft lean of anyone here: a 58% chance of beating his slot.
What the pattern says
Two very different kinds of steal are showing up. Lendeborg and Brazile are older college forwards that the league priced down for age, and that's a fair historical bet that just isn't paying off yet. Thomas and Graves are young players who slipped a few spots below the consensus boards, which is usually where the better value hides.
None of this is locked in. AJ Dybantsa has played only two games and sits fifth, and Darryn Peterson is sixth, but both still carry the highest pre-draft value on the board. Two hot weeks could flip everything.
Want to see how this usually ends? The 2025 NBA redraft and 2021 NBA redraft show which past steals actually lasted, and every player page explains why he was overlooked.
The 2026 NBA redraft re-sorts every morning with the latest games.
