Will Mallory
TE, Miami (FL) · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #162 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 23 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~45%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #111 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #162: teams let him slide 51 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 239 lbs: faster than 90% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 25 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.4 |
| Receiving | 25 rec, 272 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 239 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #111 overall (#9 TE) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 159 | Dontayvion Wicks | redraft #50 |
| 160 | Antonio Johnson | redraft #71 |
| 161 | Nick Hampton | redraft #160 |
| 163 | Chase Brown | redraft #17 |
| 164 | Jaren Hall | redraft #218 |
| 165 | Terell Smith | redraft #151 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.