Chase Brown
RB, Illinois · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #163 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~86%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #156 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#163). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Illinois: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 209 lbs: faster than 81% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 50 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 23.9 |
| Rushing | 576 att, 2,434 yds, 14 TD |
| Receiving | 161 rec, 1,077 yds, 10 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 209 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #156 overall (#12 RB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 160 | Antonio Johnson | redraft #71 |
| 161 | Nick Hampton | redraft #160 |
| 162 | Will Mallory | redraft #180 |
| 164 | Jaren Hall | redraft #218 |
| 165 | Terell Smith | redraft #151 |
| 166 | BJ Thompson | redraft #251 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.