Vick Ballard
RB, Mississippi St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #170 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #206 (#16 at his position); he went #170, 36 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 31% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 17 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2013 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 224 att, 877 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 18 rec, 147 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #206 overall (#16 RB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 167 | George Iloka | redraft #58 |
| 168 | Juron Criner | redraft #192 |
| 169 | Asa Jackson | redraft #169 |
| 171 | Greg Zuerlein | redraft #59 |
| 172 | Jeremy Lane | redraft #117 |
| 173 | Alfred Morris | redraft #51 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.