Alfred Morris
RB, Florida Atlantic · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #173 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida Atlantic: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 19% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 114 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 114 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| Rushing | 1429 att, 6,173 yds, 35 TD |
| Receiving | 68 rec, 513 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.3" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 170 | Vick Ballard | redraft #150 |
| 171 | Greg Zuerlein | redraft #59 |
| 172 | Jeremy Lane | redraft #117 |
| 174 | Keith Tandy | redraft #131 |
| 175 | Blair Walsh | redraft #98 |
| 176 | Mike Harris | redraft #144 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.