Tyler Smith
OL, Tulsa · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #24 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~93%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #33 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#24). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulsa: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.02 40-yard dash at 324 lbs: faster than 87% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 65 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 33.9 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 324 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.02 s |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.78 s |
| Shuttle | 4.65 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.25" / 10.63" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #33 overall (#5 OL) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 21 | Trent McDuffie | redraft #8 |
| 22 | Quay Walker | redraft #37 |
| 23 | Kaiir Elam | redraft #123 |
| 25 | Tyler Linderbaum | redraft #5 |
| 26 | Jermaine Johnson II | redraft #55 |
| 27 | Devin Lloyd | redraft #6 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.