Tyler Scott
WR, Cincinnati · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #133 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #95 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #133: teams let him slide 38 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 177 lbs: faster than 61% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 28 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2024 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 28 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Rushing | 7 att, 41 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 18 rec, 173 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 177 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 133" |
| Arm / hand | 30.88" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #95 overall (#12 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 130 | Tyler Lacy | redraft #114 |
| 131 | Charlie Jones | redraft #145 |
| 132 | Nick Herbig | redraft #76 |
| 134 | Jay Ward | redraft #122 |
| 135 | Aidan O'Connell | redraft #85 |
| 136 | Yasir Abdullah | redraft #154 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.