Nick Herbig
OLB, Wisconsin · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #132 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #132: teams let him slide 35 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~86%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 49% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 51 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.8 |
| Defense | 66 tackles, 18 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#5 OLB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 129 | Viliami Fehoko | redraft #228 |
| 130 | Tyler Lacy | redraft #114 |
| 131 | Charlie Jones | redraft #145 |
| 133 | Tyler Scott | redraft #186 |
| 134 | Jay Ward | redraft #122 |
| 135 | Aidan O'Connell | redraft #85 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.