Tyler Lockett
WR, Kansas St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #69 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 178 of ~181 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2025 (~98%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #52 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#69). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 182 lbs: faster than 77% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 178 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 68 |
| Rushing | 40 att, 265 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 693 rec, 8,885 yds, 62 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 182 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.89 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #52 overall (#10 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 66 | Jeremiah Poutasi | redraft #166 |
| 67 | A.J. Cann | redraft #38 |
| 68 | Clive Walford | redraft #125 |
| 70 | Jaelen Strong | redraft #179 |
| 71 | Hroniss Grasu | redraft #122 |
| 72 | Jamon Brown | redraft #72 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.