Jaelen Strong
WR, Arizona St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #70 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2017 (~42%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #30 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #70: teams let him slide 40 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 61% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Receiving | 31 rec, 330 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Vertical | 42" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #30 overall (#8 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 67 | A.J. Cann | redraft #38 |
| 68 | Clive Walford | redraft #125 |
| 69 | Tyler Lockett | redraft #4 |
| 71 | Hroniss Grasu | redraft #122 |
| 72 | Jamon Brown | redraft #72 |
| 73 | Tevin Coleman | redraft #49 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.