Tye Smith
CB, Towson · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #170 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~113 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2021 (~40%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #172 (#20 at his position), close to where he went (#170).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Towson: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 11% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Defense | 49 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 3.96 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #172 overall (#20 CB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 167 | Damian Swann | redraft #192 |
| 168 | Michael Burton | redraft #197 |
| 169 | David Mayo | redraft #86 |
| 171 | Nick Boyle | redraft #114 |
| 172 | D.J. Alexander | redraft #130 |
| 173 | James O'Shaughnessy | redraft #135 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.