Michael Burton
FB, Rutgers · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #168 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #316 (#2 at his position); he went #168, 148 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Rutgers: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.65 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 14% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 153 of ~181 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~85%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 153 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 43 att, 81 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 31 rec, 196 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 18 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.65 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.2 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #316 overall (#2 FB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 165 | Bradley Pinion | redraft #94 |
| 166 | Joe Cardona | redraft #119 |
| 167 | Damian Swann | redraft #192 |
| 169 | David Mayo | redraft #86 |
| 170 | Tye Smith | redraft #171 |
| 171 | Nick Boyle | redraft #114 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.