Troy Dye
LB, Oregon · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #132 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #78 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #132: teams let him slide 54 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 93 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 99 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 14.8 |
| Defense | 121 tackles, 5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 231 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 32.25" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #78 overall (#4 LB) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 129 | Cameron Clark | redraft #248 |
| 130 | James Lynch | redraft #134 |
| 131 | Rashard Lawrence | redraft #146 |
| 133 | Colby Parkinson | redraft #106 |
| 134 | Jaylinn Hawkins | redraft #74 |
| 135 | Kevin Dotson | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.