James Lynch
DT, Baylor · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #130 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #102 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#130).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.01 40-yard dash at 289 lbs: faster than 33% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 70 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~69%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 76 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.3 |
| Defense | 56 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 289 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.01 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.39 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.88" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #102 overall (#11 DT) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 127 | K'Von Wallace | redraft #125 |
| 128 | Gabe Davis | redraft #49 |
| 129 | Cameron Clark | redraft #248 |
| 131 | Rashard Lawrence | redraft #146 |
| 132 | Troy Dye | redraft #98 |
| 133 | Colby Parkinson | redraft #106 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.