Treston Decoud
S, Oregon St. · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #169 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #245 (#26 at his position); he went #169, 76 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 11 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2018 (~34%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 206 lbs: faster than 7% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 11 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 206 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #245 overall (#26 S) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 166 | Shelton Gibson | redraft #209 |
| 167 | Avery Moss | redraft #172 |
| 168 | Marquel Lee | redraft #127 |
| 170 | Rodney Adams | redraft #222 |
| 171 | Nathan Peterman | redraft #177 |
| 172 | Isaiah McKenzie | redraft #112 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.