Nathan Peterman
QB, Pittsburgh · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #171 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~115 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2023 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #69 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #171: teams let him slide 102 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 226 lbs: faster than 46% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Passing | 85/160, 712 yds, 4 TD, 13 INT |
| Rushing | 24 att, 87 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 226 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #69 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 168 | Marquel Lee | redraft #127 |
| 169 | Treston Decoud | redraft #197 |
| 170 | Rodney Adams | redraft #222 |
| 172 | Isaiah McKenzie | redraft #112 |
| 173 | Brian Allen | redraft #190 |
| 174 | Eric Saubert | redraft #173 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.