Tre'Quan Smith
WR, Central Florida · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #91 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #86 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#91).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Central Florida: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 67 of ~99 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2023 (~68%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 67 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 15.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 131 rec, 1,764 yds, 18 TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 210 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 33.38" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #86 overall (#10 WR) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 88 | Oren Burks | redraft #106 |
| 89 | Joseph Noteboom | redraft #99 |
| 90 | Deadrin Senat | redraft #183 |
| 92 | Chukwuma Okorafor | redraft #74 |
| 93 | Ronnie Harrison | redraft #88 |
| 94 | Alex Cappa | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.