Alex Cappa
T, Humboldt St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #94 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 119 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~89%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #164 (#15 at his position); he went #94, 70 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Humboldt St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.39 40-yard dash at 305 lbs: faster than 12% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 119 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 44 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 44.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 305 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.39 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 97" |
| 3-cone | 8.04 s |
| Shuttle | 4.84 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #164 overall (#15 T) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 91 | Tre'Quan Smith | redraft #112 |
| 92 | Chukwuma Okorafor | redraft #74 |
| 93 | Ronnie Harrison | redraft #88 |
| 95 | Tarvarius Moore | redraft #148 |
| 96 | Harrison Phillips | redraft #50 |
| 97 | Mason Cole | redraft #78 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.