Tony Bergstrom
T, Utah · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #95 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #141 (#10 at his position); he went #95, 46 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
26 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.19 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 55% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 86 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~60%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 86 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.19 s |
| Bench press | 32 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.84 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 26 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #141 overall (#10 T) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 92 | T.Y. Hilton | redraft #14 |
| 93 | Brandon Thompson | redraft #134 |
| 94 | Jayron Hosley | redraft #132 |
| 96 | Chris Givens | redraft #105 |
| 97 | Lamar Miller | redraft #42 |
| 98 | Gino Gradkowski | redraft #111 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.