Tom Compton
T, South Dakota · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #193 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #130 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #193: teams let him slide 63 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Dakota: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.01 40-yard dash at 314 lbs: faster than 88% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 124 of ~178 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2022 (~70%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 124 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 314 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.01 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.59 s |
| Shuttle | 4.6 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #130 overall (#11 T) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 190 | Markelle Martin | redraft #238 |
| 191 | Dan Herron | redraft #154 |
| 192 | Charles Mitchell | redraft #195 |
| 194 | Marvin McNutt | redraft #216 |
| 195 | Nick Mondek | redraft #239 |
| 196 | Jonte Green | redraft #157 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.