Dan Herron
RB, Ohio St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #191 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #217 (#18 at his position), close to where he went (#191).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 37% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2015 (~55%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 35 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 112 att, 468 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 31 rec, 277 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.04 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #217 overall (#18 RB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 188 | Danny Trevathan | redraft #36 |
| 189 | Christo Bilukidi | redraft #188 |
| 190 | Markelle Martin | redraft #238 |
| 192 | Charles Mitchell | redraft #195 |
| 193 | Tom Compton | redraft #77 |
| 194 | Marvin McNutt | redraft #216 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.