Todd Watkins
WR, BYU · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #218 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2009 (~33%). Last NFL season: 2009.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #147 overall (#17 at his position), but he lasted until pick #218: teams let him slide 71 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
BYU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 77% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 21 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 8 rec, 90 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.13 s |
| Shuttle | 4.24 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #147 overall (#17 WR) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 215 | Cortland Finnegan | redraft #27 |
| 216 | Terrance Pennington | redraft #164 |
| 217 | Fred Matua | redraft #244 |
| 219 | Ryan LaCasse | redraft #200 |
| 220 | Titus Adams | redraft #223 |
| 221 | Tim McGarigle | redraft #186 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.